myforexsystem.info

Forex binary option trade forex binary option

Category: Forex news

Quantifying Treasuries’ Upside In A Recession

“But, but, but, rates have nowhere to go but higher…” is all we have heard for the past year.

But what if that is incorrect?

KesslerCompanies.com quanitifies the upside returns from owning bonds if things don’t work out as ebuliently as expected…

It is only logical to assume that after 8.2 years of unimpeded GDP expansion in the US, we are near to the other side of the business cycle, a recession. The average expansion since 1900 is 3.8 years, and this one is already the 3rd longest, only bested by an expansion in the 60’s at 8.8 years and the expansion in the ‘Roaring 90’s’ at 10 years.

Logically and empirically, recessions see much lower interest rates. Cycles associated with the 14 recessions since and including the Great Depression average a drop of 186 basis points in yield (-1.86% in yield) in the 10yr US Treasury. In the last five recessions that we have Fed Funds target data for, the Fed has cut rates an average of 625 basis points (-6.25%) and a minimum of 500 basis points (-5%).

With the Fed at 1.125% now, it is easy to imagine a negative Fed Funds Rate and negative Treasury yields in the next recession. A recent Bloomberg article points to new research from Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff suggesting that negative interest rates have been proven to work and are a viable choice for the Federal Reserve.

In the next recession we expect rates to fall nearer to Japan and Germany type levels; below 1% and possibly below 0.50% or 0%. Using short-hand, estimates of performance can be calculated using assumptions for where the 10yr UST falls to.

click image for large legible version

*This is a short-hand estimate of what returns may look like before any fees or commissions. This simple model does not take into account carry, rolldown, or active management. Returns could easily be higher or lower than these estimates at these terminal yields. Higher yields would most likely result in lossses.

The post Quantifying Treasuries’ Upside In A Recession appeared first on crude-oil.news.

The post Quantifying Treasuries’ Upside In A Recession appeared first on aroundworld24.com.

Rover Gas Pipeline Gets Phase 1A Approval

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has given the go-ahead to the Rover natural gas pipeline project’s Phase 1A, which will transport gas from Cadiz to the Midwest Hub, near Defiance in Ohio. The hub will serve as a distribution center for 68 percent of the gas Rover transports across the States. The US$4.2-billion pipeline, still under construction, will eventually have a daily capacity of 3.25 billion cu ft from the Marcellus and Utica shale plays. While the bulk of the gas will be supplied to the domestic market, 32 percent of it…

The post Rover Gas Pipeline Gets Phase 1A Approval appeared first on aroundworld24.com.

Infuriating: Police Arrest on Duty Nurse For Refusing to Break Law

Via The Daily Bell

“Is this patient under arrest?” Alex Wubbles asks the officer, being instructed by legal counsel on the phone.

“Nope,” the officer says.

“Do you have an electronic warrant?” She asks, searching for a way to legally comply with the officers.

“No,” The officer admits bluntly, getting annoyed.

The police did not have a warrant. The police did not have probable cause. The man was not under arrest. The unconscious patient could not consent.

The nurse, Alex, printed out the hospital’s policy which the Salt Lake City Police Department agreed to. She showed it to the officers. She clearly and calmly listed the three things which would allow her to give the police the blood sample: a warrant, patient consent, or a patient under arrest.

The police had none of these things.

“Okay, so I take it, without those in place, I am not going to get blood?” The Officer Jeff Payne is heard saying behind his body cam.

The legal counsel on the phone tries to tell the officer not to blame the messenger, and that he is making a big mistake.

Then, the officer attacks the nurse, Alex Wubbles. He drags her outside, and handcuffs her, while she cries.

“What is going on?!” She says exasperated, wondering why they are doing this to her.

She couldn’t just break the hospital policy and put her job in jeopardy because some police officers illegally told her to. She couldn’t simply collude with the lawbreakers–the police–and illegally hand over a blood sample on behalf of an unconscious patient.

That would have opened her up to lawsuits and job loss.

The officers were, in fact, breaking the law. They had no legal right to demand blood from an unconscious patient who could not consent.

The man they wanted blood from was a truck driver who had struck a vehicle being pursued by the police. It is unclear why they would even need a blood sample from the victim.

But none of these legal facts stopped the police from placing the nurse under arrest.

Wubbles was handcuffed and placed in a police vehicle. She was never actually charged.

You could chalk this up to one crazy officer, Detective Jeff Payne with the Salt Lake City Police.

But then his supervisor showed up to the scene. While the nurse was handcuffed in the cruiser, the supervisor started to lecture her.

“There are civil remedies,” he said, telling her she should have broken the law when the officer told her to. Of course, this ignored the fact that she would have been caught up in the civil action against the officers!

It’s like an episode of the Twilight Zone as the Supervisor lies and says the nurse was obstructing justice. All the nurse wanted was a warrant signed by a judge, the legal requirement to execute a search! And yet not just Officer Payne, but his Supervisor insist that she should have given them what they wanted, without a warrant.

Listening to the Supervisor’s justification is a real trip. He repeatedly says, things like, “If you already have a sample, we can just go get a warrant, but all I’m hearing is no, no, no.”

What? Yes, go get a warrant! That is what you have been repeatedly told by the nurse and hospital staff!

You can tell from the video she is not some anti-cop crusader. She was legitimately trying to do her job and follow the law to the best of her ability. Before she is arrested, you can tell she is worried and uncomfortable, trying her best to keep the situation calm and professional.

And then the police handcuffed and dragged a crying nurse out of the building to intimidate and harass her further.

She is a strong woman. She stood up to their bullying and lies and did not give in. Despite the best efforts of the police, she would not help them violate the Fourth Amendment rights of her patient.

Police should not be able to just handcuff people and drag them to a car as an intimidation method. Payne should be fired and charged with assault.

The supervisor should also be fired, for continuing to harass that poor woman after learning quite clearly that his officer was attempting to break the law. These people are a threat to the public.

But all too often Police Cheif’s and other officers line up behind their disreputable colleagues.

And that is why people have such a problem with the police. Fire the bad officers, and maybe the good ones can take the public spotlight.

But if the police treat nurses like this, surrounded by hospital staff, how can we expect them to treat the rest of us?

This is the Salt Lake City Police Facebook page if you would like to leave a friendly note.

The post Infuriating: Police Arrest on Duty Nurse For Refusing to Break Law appeared first on crude-oil.news.

The post Infuriating: Police Arrest on Duty Nurse For Refusing to Break Law appeared first on aroundworld24.com.

Has Iraq Stopped Cheating On The OPEC Deal?

OPEC’s no.2 Iraq is currently producing 4.32 million bpd of oil, below the 4.351 million bpd ceiling it had pledged in the production cut deal, Iraq’s Oil Minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi said on Friday, in what is the first sign that one of the worst-compliant producers so far may have finally started to stick to its commitment—a couple of months after the original agreement was set to expire. Despite Iraq’s optimism, its central government doesn’t yet have the full picture of the oil exports of the Kurdistan Regional Government,…

The post Has Iraq Stopped Cheating On The OPEC Deal? appeared first on aroundworld24.com.

“MAGA”: There Is Now An ETF Investing In Companies That Support The GOP

The ongoing ETF insanity, which as of the end of August saw Vanguard fund inflows of $1.6 billion every day (or $100 million every single hour) has now boldly crossed over into the political arena, with the upcoming launch of the “MAGA” ETF, which hopes to “make America great again” by investing exclusively in companies that support the Republican Party, and Trump of course.

To keep it simple, the Point Bridge GOP Stock Tracker ETF will – as one would expect – list under the ticker “MAGA,” in reference to Trump’s campaign slogan. In addition to MAGA, Hal Lambert, founder of Point Bridge, is planning a set of what it calls Politically Responsible Investing products. MAGA is expected to begin trading on September 7.

Unlike other ETFs which invest in specific industries, products, or factors, the ETF strategy will instead analyze the political contributions of the employees and the PACs of S&P companies. It will then pick the top 150 Republican stocks based on their contribution data for ETF inclusion. Lambert, a major Texas Republican fundraiser, refers to the approach as “politically responsible investing.”

Speaking to the Daily Caller, Lambert said that “corporations have been very active in political contributions and those effect the outcome of elections. Many are now becoming outwardly vocal in their attacks on President Trump and Republican policies to the detriment of their shareholders and the country. Investors need to support the companies that are supportive of President Trump and the Republican Party because that drives policy across the country.”

“How can a company that has a fiduciary duty to shareholders support candidates that want higher taxes on their company which ultimately harms their shareholders? Investors should have a way to say no thank you to companies that are actively against their interests.”

Lambert said that the top five Republican contributors in the past two election cycles were: AT&T, Marathon Petroleum, Home Depot, Exxon Mobil, and Altria. “All of those stocks will be in the ETF,” Lambert said. The launch of the fund comes as major corporations are increasingly getting involved in politics (just google GOOGLE).

Before rushing in, keep this in mind: one sector fund investors will miss is the one that has been the best performing YTD: tech. As of the most recent election cycle, the MAGA ETF will not have any large technology companies that are typically Democratic in their contributions, but Lambert maintains that with 150 stocks, it still contains plenty of industry diversity.

The fund, which is expected to list on the BATS exchange, has a rather generous annual expense ratio of 0.72%. Which is why investors may want to look to cheaper, knock-offs alternatives: according to Reuters, a rival group, Active Weighting Advisors LLC in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, plans a Republican Policies Fund and a Democratic Policies Fund listed under the tickers GOP and DEMS.

Is it unclear if there will be any correlation between the performance of the GOP or DEMS and the actual approval polling of either the Republican or Democrat party, although it is very clear that

The post “MAGA”: There Is Now An ETF Investing In Companies That Support The GOP appeared first on crude-oil.news.

The post “MAGA”: There Is Now An ETF Investing In Companies That Support The GOP appeared first on aroundworld24.com.

Is A US Default Imminent: Liquidation Panic Grips T-Bills Market

While the politicians and the mainstream media are playing down any concerns about the US debt ceiling, Treasury Bill market participants are seeing chaos as the yield curve has snapped across the Sept-Oct divide with panic-buying in bills that mature ahead of the September-end (Q3-end liquidity needs), and dumping of October bills.

 

As Treasury Cash declines…

 

The T-Bill curve is steepening drastically… to its steepest yet…

As the debt-ceiling anxiety indicator is exploding…

With the short-end bid and anything maturing just after September is getting crushed…

As a reminder – USA Sovereign risk has spiked to double that of Germany’s recently – the highest since Lehman…

As we noted previously, one potential catalyst for the spike in odds of an adverse outcome is that earlier today, the chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus said aid for victims of Hurricane Harvey should not be part of a vehicle to raise the debt ceiling.

Quoted by The Hill, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), a Trump ally who leads the conservative caucus, said disaster aid should pass on its own, apart from separate measures the government must pick up in September to raise the nation’s borrowing limit and fund the government.

“The Harvey relief would pass on its own, and to use that as a vehicle to get people to vote for a debt ceiling is not appropriate,” he said an interview with The Washington Post, signaling agreement with Trump on the approach. It would “send the wrong message” to add $15 to $20 billion of spending while increasing the debt ceiling, Meadows added.

Ironically, it was precisely the Harvey disaster that prompted Goldman yesterday to lower its odds of a debt ceiling crisis from 50% to 33%, on the assumption that it would make conseratives more agreeable to a compromise, when in fact precisely the opposite appears to have happened, and the new dynamic is now playing out in the market where the odds of a government shutdown have never been greater.

So what does it mean for the US if the T-Bill market is correct and a debt ceiling deal is not reached in time over the next 30 or so days? For an unpleasant perspective on what may happen next, here is Deutsche Bank’s preview of what a debt ceiling crisis would look like:

Guide to a Debt Ceiling Crisis

 

If Congress doesn’t act in time and the above fallbacks are deemed untenable, the Treasuries with affected principal or coupon payments would likely be handled in two ways, according to scenarios considered by SIFMA. The first option would extend maturity and coupon payments, where payment decisions are explicitly announced by Treasury one day at a time, and both coupon and principal payments are ultimately made in full once the debt limit is raised. These securities would be able to be transferred normally, and a market for them would develop. While the security is not “defaulted” as its maturity date has been extended in systems, the extension would likely constitute a change in terms that triggers CDS.

 

The other outcome would a failure pay , where Treasury does not set a date for future payment, and there is no pre-announcement (or it comes last minute). A failure to pay would mean the affected securities drop off the Fed system and cannot be transferred normally. A market would eventually develop, but once there is a failure to pay and the securities are not extended in systems, they cannot be “unmatured” and maturity extended.

 

Regardless of whether it is a payment extension or a failure to pay, the longer Treasury remains in default, the worse the situation for financial markets. Market reactions and market functioning might be comparatively stable at first, but the concern is of widespread panic and systemic market disruptions.

 

As for immediate ramifications, noted that CDS would likely triggered either default scenario , as sovereign CDS is triggered by either a failure to pay, repudiation/moratorium, or a restructuring. A failure to pay occurs when a sovereign doesn’t pay principal or interest when due, with a 3 day grace period applying to that due date in the case of the US. In our view, a CDS trigger would apply to all debt obligations backed by the full faith and credit of the US government (including GNMA, FHA securities, etc.). A CDS event is unlikely to have much direct market impact, however, as net CDS exposure is a modest $1bn as of the end of July, down from about $4bn in 2013 and its peak near $6bn in 2011. As long there is no one particular bank that is overly short protection, we do not expect any knock-on CDS event. 5y CDS is currently suggesting no real concern, sitting at the bottom end of its 19-24bp ytd range. While the supply of deliverable securities is more than adequate to satisfy the outstanding contracts, demand deliverable bonds may cause distortions . The 2.25% Aug 2046 bonds are currently the cheapest-to-deliver into the CDS, and would likely trade upward in price towards recovery value.

 

Among Treasury market investors, money market funds are a key group possible propagation risk . Even after money fund reform, government funds continue to be quoted at a stable $1 NAV, leaving them vulnerable to perceptions around “breaking the buck,” and therefore large scale investor redemptions in an extreme scenario. Treasuries accounted for $678bn of money funds $2.7tn AUM as of the end of July, while Treasury repo makes up another $595bn (with about $150bn of that made up by RRP’s with the Fed). Money funds’ Treasury holdings tend to be concentrated in securities maturing in the first month – more than 40% of their Treasuries held at the end of July matured in August. This suggests that the bias will be for money funds to accumulate more securities maturing around the debt ceiling, though they may be cautious around specific issues. However, it’s worth noting that they then owned over $40bn combined in the October 5 bills, October 12 bills, and October 15 coupon maturities – more than 20% of the amount  outstanding. Of the $1.3tn of Treasuries (bills and coupons) that mature between October and mid-January, money funds own about 19% – potentially an important factor in the event that a default drags out. Also note that maturing notes and bill holdings are concentrated in a relatively few fund families.

 

Potential outflows from money funds has implications repo market . Possible forced selling of Treasuries, money funds would likely cut back on their provision of financing to banks through repo. While reforms have reduced banks’ reliance on short term funding and put them in a place to better withstand a significant reduction in availability of things like repo funding, a sharp contraction in overall repo financing would likely have ramifications for market functioning and liquidity.

 

In terms of market plumbing, given the reliance Treasuries managing credit risk derivatives , a default event could spread quickly to derivatives market via a sudden drop in the valuation of UST collateral. This loss in value would trigger calls for additional collateral, and given the widespread use of UST’s, it is possible that a number of market participants fail to post sufficient collateral; this would constitute a default in a centrally cleared trade. The requirement that the surviving counterparty replace the risk of that trade could subsequently result in a major revaluation of all related trades, triggering new collateral calls, and potentially create a vicious cycle.

 

 

How might the Fed might react to a major disruption?

 

The question is complicated by a possible reinvestment decision in the September meeting, but extracting that for the time being, there is nothing immediately apparent in the Federal Reserve Act that would preclude the Fed from purchasing defaulted Treasury securities. This would likely not be a proactive step, as the Fed would not want to be seen “bailing out” the Treasury, but given the extremity of a default situation, the Fed would be governed by its financial stability mandate.

 

The Fed could intervene by removing defaulted securities from the market and sell or repo non-defaulted issues to provide the market with good collateral. Additional emergency facilities similar to those seen in 2008 are another option wherein the Fed could support money funds by accepting their assets and providing liquidity. To the extent that liquidity concerns became extreme the Fed could obviously move to add further monetary accommodation especially if it perceived knock on effects to the growth and inflation outlook.

The post Is A US Default Imminent: Liquidation Panic Grips T-Bills Market appeared first on crude-oil.news.

The post Is A US Default Imminent: Liquidation Panic Grips T-Bills Market appeared first on aroundworld24.com.

Open Board Meeting September 1, 2017

The post Open Board Meeting September 1, 2017 appeared first on Central bank.
The post Open Board Meeting September 1, 2017 appeared first on aroundworld24.com.

Eid Al-Adha in Turkey

The post Eid Al-Adha in Turkey appeared first on aroundworld24.com.

EIA: US natural gas underground storage up 30 bcf

The US Energy Information Administration reported underground natural
gas storage across the Lower 48 states rose 30 bcf for the week ended
Aug. 25.The post EIA: US natural gas underground storage up 30 bcf appeared first on aroundworld24.com.

Cooper moves forward on Sole gas field off Australia

Cooper Energy Ltd. will deliver gas sales of 4 MMboe/year, which is four
times the company’s 2017 production, on the heels of taking a financial
investment decision for its Sole natural gas field development in
eastern Bass Strait offshore Victoria in southeastern Australia.  

The post Cooper moves forward on Sole gas field off Australia appeared first on aroundworld24.com.